The Democratic National Convention (DNC), starting on Monday, August 19, in Chicago, is set to see Vice President Kamala Harris officially accept her nomination as the party’s presidential candidate. Harris has secured over the necessary 1,976 delegate votes needed to represent the DNC in the presidential election against former President Donald Trump from the Republican National Convention (RNC) on November 5, 2024.
Through a virtual roll call, Harris had already received the endorsement of the DNC stakeholders before the convention began. However, this development did not immediately alleviate the pressure on President Biden, who was forced to end his re-election campaign following a poor debate performance against Trump. But his traducers did not stop there as they initially also demanded that he should resign and exit the White House effective immediately.
This situation echoes the tale of Oliver Twist, who perpetually asks for more. That is because not a few Republicans had been calling for Biden to resign from the presidency since he had conceded his re-election bid to Harris, suggesting he was unfit to continue in office.
Fortunately, the initial calls for Biden’s resignation, fueled by the notion that withdrawing from re-election indicated his incapacity, have subsided. Although he has about five months left in his presidency, Biden has recovered from a recent bout with COVID-19 and even participated in a joint campaign event with Harris in Maryland on August 15.
President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election on Sunday, July 21, 2024, led to calls for him to step down from the presidency, an unprecedented move, particularly because he was pressured by his party members and allies. This decision mirrors President Lyndon Johnson’s choice in 1968 to forgo re-election, although Johnson completed his term rather than resigning.
In a twist of fate, the COVID-19 pandemic, which initially helped Biden win the presidency in 2020, seemed to have undermined his re-election bid less than 90 days before the November 5 election. The pandemic was crucial to Biden’s 2020 victory and Trump’s exit from office, but it now appears to be Biden’s Achilles’ heel. His poor debate performance against Trump, which he admitted was dismal, intensified calls for him to withdraw from the race, and he eventually succumbed to pressure from allies like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Ironically, the same pandemic that boosted Biden’s 2020 campaign is now contributing to his inability to seek re-election, potentially aiding Trump’s return to the White House. Although Biden did not specifically cite COVID-19 as the reason for his withdrawal, the pandemic’s negative impact on his campaign, including his abysmal debate performance when he faced off with former President Trump in a CNN-organized TV debate and the resulting criticism for his subpar output, influenced his decision to step aside.
Several factors contributed to President Biden’s declining approval ratings and his decision not to seek re-election. Public opinion soured over his foreign policy, particularly due to the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the surge of illegal migration into the U.S., and perceived excessive U.S. support for Ukraine and Israel in their respective conflicts. The recent escalation in the Middle East, including the assassination of key figures such as Hamas leader in Iran and Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, the potential for broader conflict involving Russia and Iran in what might stretch into a third world war, has further strained the situation and democrats under pressure to end the two conflicts— Israeli/Hamas and Russia/Ukraine wars before they degenerate into a conflict of global dimension.
Although Biden initially received praise for his handling of foreign policy during his 2019- 2020 campaign, however, his approval rating had dropped to about 38% by February, this year. While COVID-19 was not the only reason for his withdrawal, it significantly impacted his presidency and political environment. Consequently, Biden decided to step aside for Vice President Kamala Harris, whose nomination has rejuvenated the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and restored enthusiasm for the party’s 2024 campaign.
Coincidentally, the RNC candidate, Donald Trump, has also gained momentum. This boost followed President Biden’s poor performance in their first debate and Trump’s ability to maintain a strong public profile despite ongoing legal issues, including a failed assassination attempt. The would-be assassin’s bullet merely grazed Trump’s ear, which many supporters and undecided voters interpreted as divine protection, especially as Trump instinctively moved his head away from the shot aimed at his forehead.
As Trump celebrated these developments, President Biden stepped down, leading to a surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris and reinvigorating the DNC. Recent polls show Harris in a tight race with Trump. While Harris’s campaign slogan, “We are not going back,” suggests a commitment to preventing Trump’s return to the White House, some analysts argue it lacks impact compared to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), which may not be as effective as in previous elections.
Despite the current enthusiasm for Harris, some pundits caution that the excitement may be short-lived. Historical patterns suggest that the political landscape can shift rapidly, and the initial boost for Harris might not last beyond the convention, which started on August 19.
In 2016, few predicted that Donald Trump would make it to the White House, with most polls favoring Hillary Clinton. Despite Clinton winning the popular vote by about 3 million votes, Trump won the presidency by securing 307 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 227. The US electoral system is so complex that although Clinton received 65,853,514 popular votes, while Trump received 62,984,514 of the popular votes, Trump won the contest.
That 2016 election marked the fifth time in U.S. history that the winning candidate lost the popular vote, and Trump’s victory in that contest against all odds suggests he might repeat that success in 2024. There is a conspiracy theory that Clinton’s loss was influenced by key electoral college voters who were opposed to the idea of a Clinton presidential dynasty, akin to the Kennedy family or the Bushes.
Had Clinton won, it would have added a husband-and-wife presidential pair to the list of political dynasties, including the Kennedys and the Bushes. Given the political dynamics and underlying racial and gender biases in the U.S., some argue that while there is public support for Kamala Harris, there may be underlying resistance due to her being a female and a Black candidate, reflecting deeper societal biases.
In summary, there are likely many voters in the U.S. who may harbor latent racial biases and might not vote for Kamala Harris due to her being both a woman and a person of color. While former President Barack Obama successfully engaged younger voters in 2008 through social media—who judged candidates by their abilities rather than race—Harris’s campaign relies on this demographic to support her. The challenge remains whether these younger voters can influence their parents, who may hold biases against Harris. Plus how many of the youths, particularly university students are willing to overlook the administration’s support for the ongoing massacre of Palestinians in Gaza by Israel even though Hamas is the agent provocateur?
Obama faced the challenge of being a Black man, and despite extensive efforts by previous Black leaders like Rev. Al Sharpton and Rev. Jesse Jackson, Obama was the first to succeed in winning the presidency. Hillary Clinton, the first female nominee from a major party, also failed to win despite being Caucasian.
Given these factors, which still exist as formidable barriers, it’s doubtful that Harris will overcome the same obstacles. Her bid for the presidency in 2024 may face significant hurdles, akin to the proverbial difficulty of a camel passing through the eye of a needle. Although Harris has gained momentum since Biden’s withdrawal, this enthusiasm is expected to wane after the current convention.
The concern arises from the fact that Kamala Harris will face realpolitik challenges when she steps out of her scripted, teleprompter-driven comfort zone into unscripted interactions with news reporters. These journalists will likely press her on various aspects of her tenure as Attorney General of California, her time as a senator, and her current role as Vice President. Apart from young democrats who are on her side because they did not want Biden due to his old age, there is no evidence that blacks or women who should be natural constituents are with her in significant numbers.
While Harris’s team has preemptively addressed potential questions through social media, this structured approach may not shield her from direct questioning by reporters. The upcoming television debate between Harris and former President Trump on September 10 could be a critical moment. If Harris fails to perform effectively, especially given her background as a former prosecutor, it could significantly damage her campaign, much like Biden’s poor performance against Trump on June 27, 2024, which led to the end of his re-election bid.