After nearly 50 years of independence, Nigeria seems to have remained in the laboratory of failed experiments in democracy and nation-building hence the country is once again in political turmoil simply because the ruling political party has lost control of public opinion to the opposition parties owing to sheer negligence of its duty to connect with the citizens that voted its candidate, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua to power.
In my opinion, the recent crisis which the opposition has been referring to as constitutional crisis occasioned by a so-called power vacuum arising from the long absence of Mr. President from office is actually a fall out of the disconnection between the leadership and followership in Nigeria now manifesting as self inflicted communication crisis because instead of the ruling party setting the national agenda, the parties outside of government have been serving as the compass for the Nigerian masses to identify government as the villain via criticisms of policies that resonate with them.
We can put the above hypothesis in perspective by examining the underlying factors behind the activities of the opposition in the past two months and linking it to the remote and proximate cause or causes of the political situation which had heated up the nation’s political atmosphere to a boiling point.
Trend analysis reveals that this is not the first time that arm twisting tactics is being adopted by the opposition to serve its selfish ends in the past three years of the existence of this administration.
The first time was immediately after the general elections that gave the ruling party victory at the polls and the aggressive civil society organisations started complaining that the elections were flawed prompting the opposition to start calling for a unity government as a remedy. To calm frayed nerves and reduce the tension that was building up in the polity, President Yar’Adua and the ruling party, in the interest of peace decided to meet the demand of the opposition half way via a quasi-unity government type of arrangement whereby the federal cabinet was formed by nominees of all the political parties that won elections at governorship level.
The second time was when President Yar’Adua in fulfillment of his promise to reform the electoral system in Nigeria during his inaugural speech on May 29, 2007, set up a committee to actualize that vision .Once again, the opposition hijacked the report of the committee and insisted that contrary to the current constitutional provision, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC should be appointed by an independent judicial panel. An attempt by government to pass the report through the customary due process of review by the Executive Council of the Federation (EXCOF) was met by stiff resistance and a slew of public outcries including threats of strike by workers who were being manipulated by the opposition. To assuage the anger of the opposition, once again Mr. President promised to and indeed passed the recommendations of the reform committee to the National Assembly for consideration.
The third time that the opposition is taking advantage of the accommodating posture of this government to push its private agenda under the guise of fighting for the public is the occasion of Mr. President’s ill health.
Again ,despite three court rulings on the legality of other options, the opposition once again had its way as it came to pass that after 78 days of battle of wits between the opposition and the ruling party, the National Assembly, (NASS) prodded by the Governors forum, managed to ease the political tension that had gripped the country by applying what it termed the Doctrine of Necessity to accept President Umar Yar’Adua’s interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation, BBC news transcript of January 12, 2010 as sufficient transmission of his absence from office in fulfillment of the requirements of section 145 of the 1999 constitution thereby paving the way for Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to effectively act as president.
With such innovative solution, the principle of ‘no- victor- no -vanquished’ which was applied by General Yakubu Gowon, at the end of the civil war in 1970, to give the defeated Biafran army and citizens in the eastern part of the country a sense of belonging in a new Nigeria ,seems to have been re-enacted as the measure which is a political solution and a soft landing for the warring factions both within the ruling party ,PDP and the opposition parties which capitalised on the long absence of Mr. President to try to destabilise the ruling party has assisted in cooling down the political temperature which reached a feverish point.
Considering the effect of the schism precipitated by the mob action of the opposition with the feeling of siege unleashed on the polity, the opposition succeeded very well in their antics of bringing the government of Yar’Adua to disrepute in the eyes of its publics through scare mongery because in defiance of the three court rulings that there is no constitutional crisis as a result of Mr President’s long absence and the vote of confidence by the EXCOF based on the provisions of section 144 ,the elders comprising of ex-presidents and former military Heads of State, except Gen Ibrahim Babangida past principal officers of the National Assembly, NASS, the academia ,students as well as workers and even the international community including the United States of America, European Union and Britain joined in the clamour for the NASS to compel President Yar’Adua to transmit a letter in accordance with section 145 though it is not the only option available for the Vice President to function in acting capacity for Mr. President.
Based on the above analogy, an out-of-the-box thinker would easily see through the charade and identify the recent political impasse as nothing but a struggle for power at the centre of which the powerful propaganda machinery of the opposition, capitalising on the absence of an effective campaign apparatus for the ruling party which was rolled up as soon as it won the 2007 election, has been able to stir up a political storm disguised as constitutional crisis that can only be resolved by inviting the Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, to take over at the centre in order to destabilise the ruling party which had allocated the presidency to the northern part of Nigeria based on its unique power rotation equation of north and south.
Does the fact that Nigerians appear to have ignored the Federal High Court, Abuja ruling which relied on section 144 to empower EXCOF to pass a vote of confidence or otherwise on Yar’Adua’s health status and ability to continue in office in preference for the application of section 145 which requires transmission of a letter as a precondition serve as a confirmation of the notion that Nigerians have completely lost faith in the judicial system or have they been overwhelmed by the awesome power of spin deployed by the opposition? In the light of the landmark rulings against the government in power in nearly three years of this administration resulting in the loss of Anambra, Ondo and Edo states by the ruling party and the jailing of former vice chairman of the ruling party amongst others , the judiciary may not be said to be pandering to the government in power and as such cannot be accused of failing to meet the expectation of Nigerians. So rather than attributing the recent political malaise to constitutional crisis as insinuated by the opposition, l prefer to attribute it to communication crisis owing to a breakdown in communication between the government in power and the citizenry which again, is a clear testament to the fact that effective communication is a critical and integral element of governance, and any government that ignores it, does so at its peril as evidenced by the events of the past few days.
Conventionally, the shouting side is the winning side. The efficacy of that dictum is embedded in the fact that until former President, Olusegun Obasanjo whose disdain for the media is legendary, enlisted the services of an equally aggressive media people to counter the onslaught of the opposition attacks during his second tenure in office, he was losing the confidence of the electorate and grip power.
While this government failed to read the hand writing on the walls which is clearly that its reputation has sunk abysmally by failing to keep the people who voted her into office abreast of policies aimed at improving their lives, the opposition played better politics through the media than the government in power as it challenged all the policies of this government such as the seven -point- agenda, vision 20-20-20 and power emergency which were either poorly articulated or not operationalised.
After being constantly and consistently portrayed as a government driven by a cabinet that did not seem to understand its vision and mission, assuming there was one ; a system that was unfamiliar with the concept of public diplomacy and therefore never bothered to conduct an audit of its image and a system that as a matter of policy maintains grave-yard silence that was characterised by weak or few rebuttals of the lies against it, the tendency for the reading public to believe what they hear or see in the media as gospel truth is very high and since the officials of the various international missions here in Nigeria, who send dispatches to their home countries form their opinion from feelers from the media arena which is dominated by views from the opposition, it was only natural for the global community to join in the call for a transmission of letter by President Yar’Adua to the National Assembly, NASS to close the so called leadership vacuum.
At this juncture, it is pertinent to point out that the political conflict has not brought about only doom and gloom but has also facilitated the deepening of our nascent democracy since a conflict per se is not a negative phenomenon. In fact, it is a conflict that refuses to be de- escalated when parties become bellicose that is destructive. As the events in the past 11 years of consistent democratic governance in Nigeria, particularly the last few months have demonstrated, conventions and customs which the opposition had bandied in the public arena as breaches of the constitution by Mr. President are actually symptoms of a maturing democracy which politicians from both sides of the divide had failed to identify and manage pragmatically until the NASS resolution .
Let me quickly put that assertion in contest.
Owing to the fact that in the past, Presidents laid the budget before a joint section of the Senate and House of Representatives , the opposition accused Mr President of breaching the constitution when he could not do so as a result of the disagreement on venue arising from rivalry between the upper and lower legislative chambers .The embarrassing situation compelled experts to take a closer look at the constitution which revealed that contrary to previous belief ,it is not mandatory for Mr President to lay the budget before a joint session of the NASS.
Similarly, the nation which had become accustomed to a new Chief Justice, CJ of the Federation being sworn in by Mr President was cajoled by the opposition into seeing it as constituting constitutional crisis when president Yar’Adua was unavailable due to ill health to swear in the new CJ. Again, after a careful perusal of the constitution it was discovered that it is not an aberration for the outgoing to swear in the in-coming CJ.
Another convention which had become the norm but has now been revealed as not being recognized by the constitution is the often used term, Federal Executive Council, FEC. As a fall out of the political conflict of the past few months, it is now clear that the proper term is the Executive Council of the Federation, EXCOF.
Amazingly, all these myths, customs and conventions which had become an intrinsic part of governance would have remained buried in the labyrinth of the unknown if President Yar’Adua had not been absent from office over a lengthy period.
Still dwelling on the doctrine of necessity which the NASS invoked to resolve the political imbroglio, it is such an irony and a classical case of the doctrine of the tyranny of the minority that the voice of the opposition that formed government only in eight [8] of the thirty six [36] states of the federation has drowned the voice of the ruling party which controls some twenty eight [28] states. How did it all happen? My guess is that it happened because the majority adopted the policy of ‘ might is right’ while the minority operated under the principle of ‘pen is mightier than sword’.
After all said and done, one useful lesson that the ruling party and by extension this government must take away from this unfortunate incident, is that it must re-activate the campaign machinery which it collapsed after it was sworn into office in 2007 to regain the public confidence which it had lost to the opposition which has continued to campaign through constant condemnations of governments actions and inactions in the media.
The NASS supported by the governors forum who invoked the doctrine of necessity to save the nation from political stalemate have proven themselves to be excellent change makers now acting president Goodluck Jonathan who is the new change agent that the nation must rely on at this trying period when the reins of government is being held by him on behalf of his boss, must rise up to meet the high expectations of Nigerians.
In the light of the foregoing, if l were acting president Goodluck Jonathan, l would move swiftly to implement the amnesty programme started by President Yar’Adua by calling a meeting of the implementation committee and directing immediate action. I would further hold a meeting with the NASS and urge the law makers to expedite action on the Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB and the electoral reform bill which are currently receiving attention. To connect with Nigerian people, l will visit a busy fuel station in Abuja , apologize to Nigerians for the return of fuel queues and approve the deregulation of petroleum prices and work out how the subsidies can be channeled into other social services such as a social security fund whereby the unemployed members of the society can earn some stipends for a few months until they find a job. If the huge sums of money being bandied in the media as the amount so far spent on petroleum subsidy is anything to go by, then there is enough to give the unemployed some succor as it is done in the advanced society where governments fear the people because their votes count instead of the people fearing the government as is the case in Nigeria. Although there was never a leadership lacuna except the opposition induced mob attack that created siege in an otherwise tranquil polity in order to get into Aso Rock by hook or by crook, the vice president, now acting president, has justifiably been alive to his duty of steering the ship of state since Mr President’s medical vacation commenced on November 23, 2009. This is because in the absence of Mr President, he has been presiding over the weekly meeting of the Executive Council of the Federation, EXCOF, he took decisive actions during Christmas to address the unfortunate incident of attempted terror attack of United States of America, via the attempted bombing of an airliner over Detroit by a Nigerian, Abdulfarouk Abdulmutallab, and he directed Nigerian Army to deploy armed forces to Jos ,Plateau state to quell the religious crisis and find a permanent solution to the re-occurring religious conflicts.
If per adventure, the acting president tackles the urgent challenges frontally, the political carpet would have been pulled from under the feet of the opposition which has been setting the political agenda of Nigeria by capitalizing on the weakness of a government lacking a sound political machinery to market itself to its stake holders ,who in desperate need of a messiah, settles for any Knight -ln -Shiny – Armour that pretends to be coming to their recue..
Incidentally, reluctance by heir apparent to mount the throne of political leadership is not new in Nigeria.
After, the 1966 Col Chukwuma Nzeogu led coup, which resulted in the death of Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa and the counter coup that took the life of General JTU Aguiyi Ironsi, Brigadier David Ejoor was said to be the next highest ranking officer in the army to take over but he reportedly opted out and thus paved the way for Col Yakubu Gowon to take over the mantle of leadership before the country was plunged into three years of civil war.
Similarly, it was also reported that when General Murtala Muhamed was assassinated during the Ill fated Bukar Suka Dimka led coup of 1975, General Olusegun Obasanjo who was next in command to the fallen Head of State, was equally reluctant to take over the mantle of leadership until he was persuaded by the then Chief of Army Staff, General Theophillus Danjuma to fill in the vacuum.
Although the recent stalemate in the nation’s democratic leadership orchestrated by the opposition’s insistence on the application of section 145 of the constitution differs from the situations under reference which were purely under military dictatorship, the mother of all questions now- apologies to Sadam Hussein- is, now that vice president Goodluck Jonathan is acting as president in the absence of the incumbent, would the opposition relent?
I have a hunch that the political onslaught from the opposition would not abate since the ultimate objective and big picture is to grab power at the centre from the ruling party. However, the new dimension that the opposition would adopt is a matter of conjecture for now.
Nevertheless, I have taken the pains to embark on this historical excursion with the hope that the political gladiators would learn from past experience because as they say, experience is the best teacher.
So in the event that the antagonists and protagonists in the political arena fail to realize that our democracy which is in its eleventh year is getting mature and our dear nation which is on the eve of clinching the golden age of fifty [50] is experiencing a political rite of passage and as such sensitive political issues bordering on unity of the nation should be handled with utmost care and sense of responsibility, posterity will know who to hold responsible for any unsavory outcome of the ongoing nasty power struggle at the centre in the coming days.
Let me quickly put that assertion in context. Owing to the fact that in the past, Presidents laid the budget before a joint section of the Senate and House of Representatives, the opposition accused Mr President of breaching the constitution when he could not do so as a result of the disagreement on venue arising from rivalry between the upper and lower legislative chambers. The embarrassing situation compelled experts to take a closer look at the constitution which revealed that contrary to previous belief it is not mandatory for Mr President to lay the budget before a joint session of the NASS.
Similarly, the nation which had become accustomed to a new Chief Justice of the Federation being sworn in by Mr President was cajoled by the opposition into seeing it as constituting constitutional crisis when President Yar’Adua was unavailable due to ill health to swear in the new CJ. Again, after a careful perusal of the constitution it was discovered that it is not an aberration for the outgoing to swear in the in-coming CJ.
Amazingly, all these myths, customs and conventions which had become an intrinsic part of governance would have remained buried in the labyrinth of the unknown if President Yar’Adua had not been absent from office over a lengthy period.
Still dwelling on the doctrine of necessity which the NASS invoked to resolve the political imbroglio, it is such an irony and a classical case of the doctrine of the tyranny of the minority that the voice of the opposition that is in government in only eight of the 36 states of the federation has drowned the voice of the ruling party which controls some 28 states. How did it all happen? My guess is that it happened because the majority adopted the policy of ‘might is right’ while the minority operated under the principle of ‘the pen is mightier than the sword’.
One useful lesson that the ruling party and by extension this government must take away from this unfortunate incident is that it must re-activate the campaign machinery which it collapsed after it was sworn into office in 2007, in order to regain the public confidence which it had lost to the opposition, which continues to campaign through constant condemnation of government’s actions and inactions in the media.
The NASS supported by the Governors’ Forum, who invoked the doctrine of necessity to save the nation from political stalemate, have proven themselves to be excellent change makers. Acting President Goodluck Jonathan, the new change agent that the nation must rely on at this trying period when the reins of government are being held by him on behalf of his boss, must rise to the high expectations of Nigerians.
In the light of the foregoing, if l were Dr. Jonathan, l would move swiftly to implement the amnesty programme started by President Yar’Adua by calling a meeting of the implementation committee and directing immediate action. I would further hold a meeting with the NASS and urge the law makers to expedite action on the Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB, and the electoral reform bill which are currently receiving attention. To connect with Nigerian people, l would visit a busy fuel station in Abuja, apologize to Nigerians for the return of fuel queues and approve the deregulation of petroleum prices and work out how the subsidies can be channelled into other social services such as a social security fund whereby the unemployed members of the society can earn some stipends for a few months until they find a job. If the huge sums of money being bandied in the media as the amount so far spent on petroleum subsidy are anything to go by, then there is enough to give the unemployed some succour as done in advanced societies where governments fear the people because their votes count, instead of the people fearing the government as is the case in Nigeria. Although there was never a leadership lacuna except the opposition induced mob attack that created a siege in an otherwise tranquil polity in order to get into Aso Rock by hook or by crook, the vice president, now acting president, has justifiably been alive to his duty of steering the ship of state since Mr President’s medical vacation commenced on November 23, 2009. This is because in the absence of Mr President, he has been presiding over the weekly meeting of the Executive Council of the Federation, EXCOF, he took decisive actions during Christmas to address the unfortunate incident of attempted terror attack of United States of America, via the attempted bombing of an airliner over Detroit by a Nigerian, Abdulfarouk Abdulmutallab, and he directed the Nigerian Army to deploy troops to Jos, Plateau State, to quell the religious crisis and find a permanent solution to the re-occurring religious conflicts.
If per adventure, the acting president tackles the urgent challenges frontally, the political carpet would have been pulled from under the feet of the opposition which has been setting the political agenda of Nigeria by capitalizing on the weakness of a government lacking a sound political machinery to market itself to its stake holders, who in desperate need of a messiah, settle for any knight -in -shiny -armour that pretends to be coming to their recue.
Incidentally, reluctance by heir apparent to mount the throne of political leadership is not new in Nigeria. It was reported, for example, that when General Murtala Muhamed was assassinated during the ill-fated Bukar Suka Dimka-led coup of 1976, General Olusegun Obasanjo who was next in command to the fallen Head of State, was reluctant to take over the mantle of leadership until he was persuaded by the then Chief of Army Staff, General Theophillus Danjuma to fill in the vacuum. ,
Although the recent stalemate in the nation’s democratic leadership orchestrated by the opposition’s insistence on the application of section 145 of the constitution differs from the situations under reference which were purely under military dictatorship, the real question, now that vice president Goodluck Jonathan is acting as president, will the opposition relent?
I have a hunch that the political onslaught from the opposition would not abate since the ultimate objective and big picture is to grab power at the centre from the ruling party.
In the event that the antagonists and protagonists in the political arena fail to realize that our democracy, which is in its eleventh year is getting mature and our dear nation which is on the eve of clinching the golden age of fifty [50], is experiencing a political rite of passage and as such sensitive political issues bordering on unity of the nation should be handled with utmost care and sense of responsibility, posterity will know whom to hold responsible for any unsavory outcome of the ongoing nasty power struggle at the centre in the coming weeks.
Magnus Onyibe is a development strategist based in Abuja.